McCoy: El Nino likely means a mild winter

VW independent/submitted information

There has been a lot of talk lately about El Nino and what effects it might have across the United States this year. What really stands out is that the current El Nino is shaping up to be the strongest on record, said Van Wert County Emergency Management Director Rick McCoy.

“For our area in northwest Ohio, that could mean very little snow and warmer than normal temperatures,” McCoy added. “El Nino events in the past can give us some idea on the winter ahead, but there are a few other factors that have to be figured into the forecast predictions.”

El Ninos, which originate in the Pacific Ocean, occur when warm ocean waters from the equator move north up along the coast of South America towards California. This causes the fishing industry in these areas to become stagnant, because fish like cooler waters, so they swim away from these areas. El Ninos also affect the weather patterns across the United States.

According to McCoy, the pattern is becoming very evident that El Nino is getting its grip on the U.S. In normal El Nino years, November would normally turn cold and then, moving into December, much of the United States would start seeing mild and above normal temperatures, which is what the U.S. is starting to see.

“As the winter progresses, I would expect our temperatures to remain mild, with very little snow,” McCoy said. “Yes, there will still be some cold snaps that could give a quick burst of snow or freezing rain, but that would be short lived and then would transition back to above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.”

Several factors that can throw off an El Nino forecast is warm water off the Gulf of Alaska, which can form a trough over the eastern United States that can drop cold air masses across this area from Canada.  Another weather maker, McCoy said, is the Arctic Oscillation, which also brings cold air down across the region, so there are many things to consider when looking at the winter overall.

Still, McCoy said there is growing support in the meteorological community that the current El Nino will control much of the winter, delivering milder and drier conditions to this area, heavy rains in California, which will help that state’s drought, plus colder and wetter conditions from Texas to Florida.

The EMA director noted that, after the last two brutal winters, a lot of area residents are hoping for a break. Both winters had multiple sub-zero temperatures, with 42.3 inches of snow recorded last year and 77.8 inches the year before.

“If this winter compares at all to the last record El Nino in 1997, there was only 2.5 inches of snow that entire winter and that snowfall was recorded in March,” McCoy noted.