AAA expects record July 4 travel period

VW independent staff/submitted information

AAA projects 72.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles or more from home over the Independence Day holiday period from Saturday, June 28 to Sunday, July 6. This year’s domestic travel forecast is an increase of 1.7 million travelers compared to last year and 7 million more than in 2019. AAA’s Independence Day forecast includes two weekends instead of one to better reflect the flow of holiday travelers. 

“Summertime is one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, and July 4th is one of the most popular times to get away,” said Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel. “Following Memorial Day’s record forecast, AAA is seeing strong demand for road trips and air travel over Independence Day week. With the holiday falling on a Friday, travelers have the option of making it a long weekend or taking the entire week to make memories with family and friends.” 

Independence Day travelers by mode of transportation 

By car: AAA projects 61.6 million people will travel by car, a 2.2 percent increase over last year and the highest volume on record. This Independence Day holiday period is expected to see an additional 1.3 million road travelers compared to 2024.

Drivers are seeing increases at the pump, but summer gas prices are still the lowest they’ve been since 2021. The Israel Iran conflict has driven up the price of oil in recent days but not dramatically. Escalation and duration of the conflict are two factors to watch. Weather is also a wild card. The Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and NOAA predicts a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season. Storms along the Gulf Coast can affect oil refineries and disrupt fuel deliveries, leading to a temporary increase in gas prices.   

By air: The number of people traveling by air is also projected to set a new record. AAA expects 5.84 million travelers will fly to their destinations; that’s eight percent of all Independence Day travelers.  This year’s projection is a 1.4 percent increase over the previous record set last Independence Day week of 5.76 million air travelers.  

According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their July 4 trips, a roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $810, four percent more expensive than last year.

By other modes: Travel by other modes is expected to grow by 7.4 percent over last year. AAA projects 4.78 million people will travel by bus, train, or cruise. This year’s number is just shy of the 2019 record of 4.79 million. Cruising is driving the popularity of this category, particularly this time of year, when Alaska cruise season is in full swing.